OR-Sen: Smith Pulls Back Ahead

Rasmussen (8/7, likely voters incl. leaners, 7/15 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (46)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 50 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Without including leaners (although I don’t see why one would prefer this metric), Smith’s lead is 47-39; Merkley had led by 43-41 in this category in July.

Despite Smith’s lead in two consecutive polls, this one could be anyone’s game come fall.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

35 thoughts on “OR-Sen: Smith Pulls Back Ahead”

  1. is looking increasingly disappointing for us. Right now, I see us picking up only four seats – VA, NM, CO, and NH – with a 50/50 shot at AK. And NH is by no means in the bag – Sununu is sitting on $5 million and hasn’t spent any of it yet. He could easily blow Shaheen away with a last-minute blitz of negative ads.

    We could conceivably walk away with a net gain of only 2 or 3 Senate seats, which would be incredibly disappointing.

    It baffles me why our challengers in Oregon and Maine aren’t getting more traction. The Republican incumbents there have consistently voted with Bush and the right; why are their blue-state constituents letting them get away with it?

  2. Just a quick reality check.  At this point in 2006, Jim Webb was polling in the 30’s against Allen (Macaca was a mid-August event); McGavick and Bouchard were within a few points of Cantwell and Stabenow (who won by 17 and 16 points); Kean was “surging” to a lead in NJ due to corruption charges against Menendez (9-pt win); Santorum was also “surging” after bringing Casey’s support below 50% (17-pt win); and Brown had a narrow lead in Ohio (12-pt win).

    The point is: don’t freak out about polling numbers in August, because many of these races will shift significantly by the end.  The DSCC has yet to bring it’s huge financial advantage to bear and Obama’s turnout operation should also help.  

  4. if we win the 5 that are now leaning our way:

    both udalls, shaheen, warner, and begich

    and half the tossups:

    OR and MS (polling certainly indicates tossup)

    that’s 6.

  5. Merkley is still a second-tier candidate.  A top-level candidate would not be pulling in just 69% of Democrats.

    I see pick-ups in VA, NM, and AK (unless the GOP primary

    produces an upset; even so, Begich’s chances are good), possible pickups in NH or CO (we’ll get one or two there), and a possible loss in LA.  So 3-4 seats is about right.  There just isn’t the quality of candidates this time around.  

  6. have one possible reason – a republican wave.  which of course does hit once in awhile. but i think one has to provide some evidence for a republican wave – and so far i don’t see any.  for example how could mary landrieu, who has led in every poll and has twice the cash on hand of her opponent lose to a state treasurer, while john sununu, who has around the same money advantage, but has trailed  for the entire year to a former governor win?  a republican wave is the only way.

    but this does bring me to an interesting “strategery” question:  most vulnerable senators – coleman, smith, wicker, dole, landrieu, mcconnell – have used their considerable cash advantages by advertising now, while their opponents struggle to reload after a primary or simply to raise enough money.  this has worked to their advantages – most are now sitting on a 5-10 point lead (which is not safety really, i might add).

    sununu – who is the most vulnerable senator by a wide margin, has sat on his $5M while he languishes in the polls and shaheen raises money at a steady pace meaning that by the time he starts to spend money, she will be in a position to match him if not commercial for commercial, pretty close.

    why?  it doesn’t make any sense.

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